Sri Lanka have a 30% win probability, while England have a 70% chance of victory.
Key reasons:
- England lost seven wickets for 50 runs in their defeat to Pakistan, exposing potential weaknesses against spin.
- Sri Lanka have experience playing in Asian conditions and can use spin to pressure England's middle order.
- England's stronger recent head-to-head record and batting quality still make them favourites, so Sri Lanka remain an upset pick.
SL vs ENG Betting Tips
Sri Lanka are our upset selection after England's middle-order collapse against Pakistan. The visitors lost seven wickets for just 50 runs, exposing potential weaknesses against spin. Sri Lanka have experience playing in Asian conditions and possess bowling options capable of applying pressure through the middle overs. England remain dangerous, so this is a higher-risk selection.
The under 12.5 sixes market is worth considering based on the opening two matches of the tri-series. Pakistan and Sri Lanka's first match featured 10 sixes, while England struggled against Pakistan's spin attack in their opening fixture. If Sri Lanka focus on strike rotation and partnerships, and England again struggle to build momentum, the match could stay below this line.
Brook scored just five runs off seven balls against Pakistan before being bowled by Arafat Minhas. England's wider collapse, which saw their last seven wickets fall for only 50 runs, highlighted their difficulties against spin. Brook has the quality to respond strongly, but Sri Lanka could target him with spin and variations in pace.
Match details
| Match information | Details |
|---|---|
| Match | Sri Lanka vs England, 3rd ODI |
| Tournament | Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, 2026 |
| Date | October 22, 2026 |
| Time | 1:30 PM local time |
| Venue | Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi, Pakistan |
| Sri Lanka win probability | 30% |
| England win probability | 70% |
| Sri Lanka win odds | 3.37 |
Sri Lanka vs England 3rd ODI prediction
Sri Lanka and England meet in Rawalpindi with both teams needing a victory after losing their opening matches in the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series. Pakistan have made the strongest start to the tournament, leaving the other two sides under pressure to improve their positions.
England's defeat to Pakistan exposed a weakness that Sri Lanka will look to exploit. After Pakistan posted 302/9, England were dismissed for 215, losing seven wickets for just 50 runs. Arafat Minhas claimed six wickets, showing how effectively a spinner can apply pressure when England's middle order struggles to rotate the strike and handle changes of pace.
Sri Lanka will take encouragement from that performance. They have spent considerable time playing in Pakistan and should be familiar with the conditions. Their bowling attack will need to maintain pressure through the middle overs and prevent England's experienced batters from rebuilding.
However, England have won four of the last five meetings against Sri Lanka and possess a stronger recent head-to-head record. Their top order has the quality to produce a substantial total, while their bowling attack has options across pace and spin.
Sri Lanka's best chance is to restrict England to a manageable score and then build their innings through partnerships. We favour the underdogs as an upset selection, but England's quality makes this a difficult match to predict.
Head-to-head record
England have won four of the last five clashes against Sri Lanka, giving them a clear advantage in the recent rivalry.
That record supports England's status as favourites, despite their defeat to Pakistan. Their batting lineup has considerable experience, and players such as Joe Root and Ben Duckett can help stabilise an innings when early wickets fall.
Sri Lanka will need to disrupt that pattern by taking wickets at regular intervals. Their familiarity with subcontinental conditions could help their spinners find the right pace and variations, particularly if the surface begins to slow down.
The head-to-head record favours England, but their recent collapse gives Sri Lanka a reason to believe they can cause an upset.
Tournament standings
Pakistan lead the tri-series standings with two wins from two matches. Sri Lanka are second with zero points and a net run rate of -0.74, while England are third with zero points and a net run rate of -1.74.
This match is important for both teams as they attempt to keep their hopes of reaching the final alive. A victory would provide a valuable boost, while another defeat would leave either side needing a stronger result in its remaining fixtures.
England will want to recover quickly from their heavy defeat, while Sri Lanka must improve on their opening loss to Pakistan.
Sri Lanka preview
Sri Lanka lost their opening match against Pakistan by 37 runs, but their batting showed signs of resilience. Pavan Rathnayake scored 79 and Janith Liyanage made 60, combining for a 119-run fifth-wicket partnership that briefly threatened Pakistan's total. Sri Lanka were eventually bowled out for 268 in 48.1 overs.
Their challenge against England will be to turn promising partnerships into a more complete batting performance. The top order needs to provide a stable platform, while the middle order must avoid losing wickets in quick succession.
Sri Lanka's bowling attack should focus on England's difficulties against spin. Variations in pace and flight could force mistakes from batters who struggle to rotate the strike or attempt to accelerate too early.
Their familiarity with Asian conditions could be a meaningful advantage, particularly if the pitch offers grip as the match progresses. Sri Lanka need to use those conditions intelligently rather than rely solely on individual performances.
If their bowlers can restrict England and their batters build partnerships similar to the Rathnayake-Liyanage stand, Sri Lanka have a chance of producing an improved performance.
Sri Lanka's predicted playing XI
- Pathum Nissanka
- Avishka Fernando
- Kusal Mendis (c) (wk)
- Pavan Rathnayake
- Janith Liyanage
- Kamindu Mendis
- Dasun Shanaka
- Dunith Wellalage
- Maheesh Theekshana
- Asitha Fernando
- Dilshan Madushanka
England preview
England will need a significant improvement after their defeat to Pakistan. Their innings initially showed promise, but the middle order unravelled once the spinners began taking wickets. Brook's dismissal for five was particularly damaging, as England lost a key batter before he could settle.
England have enough batting quality to respond. Tom Banton and Ben Duckett can attack during the powerplay, while Joe Root offers experience and the ability to rebuild an innings. Brook's overall ability means he should not be written off after one failure, but he will need better judgment against spin.
The bowling unit also needs to prevent Sri Lanka's middle order from building long partnerships. England conceded 302 runs against Pakistan and will want to be more disciplined with their lengths and fielding.
Adil Rashid and Liam Dawson could be important in the middle overs, while the seamers will look for early movement. England's challenge is to combine wicket-taking intent with enough control to prevent Sri Lanka from building momentum.
If England's top order fires and the bowlers avoid giving away easy runs, they have the quality to return to winning ways.
England's predicted playing XI
- Ben Duckett
- Tom Banton
- Joe Root
- Harry Brook (c)
- Jordan Cox
- Will Jacks
- Sam Curran
- Jamie Overton
- Liam Dawson
- Adil Rashid
- Gus Atkinson
Toss prediction
Both captains will need to consider how the pitch is likely to behave as the match progresses. Bowling first could allow a team to assess the conditions before planning a chase, particularly if spin becomes more effective later in the innings.
However, Rawalpindi has produced high-scoring matches in this tri-series, so batting first could also be attractive if the surface looks good for stroke play.
The toss decision will depend on the actual pitch conditions and the teams' assessment of whether chasing offers a meaningful advantage.
Pitch report and weather conditions
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium produced totals above 300 in both opening matches. Pakistan scored 305 against Sri Lanka and 302 against England, suggesting that the surface can reward batters who settle in and build an innings.
However, both matches also showed that a high-scoring pitch does not guarantee an easy chase. England's collapse against Pakistan highlighted how quickly an innings can unravel when the bowling side applies pressure and uses spin effectively.
There are indications that spin could become more influential as the match progresses. Sri Lanka may look to exploit that possibility by varying their pace and using their spinners strategically through the middle overs.
The forecast indicates clear skies, temperatures around 28°C, moderate humidity near 48% and light winds. Conditions appear settled, with minimal weather disruption expected.
Key players to watch
Sri Lanka: Kusal Mendis
Mendis is central to Sri Lanka's batting plans as captain and wicketkeeper. His ability to build a partnership in the middle order could be crucial if the top order loses early wickets. Sri Lanka need their experienced batters to turn starts into substantial contributions.
Sri Lanka: Maheesh Theekshana
Theekshana could be important if the Rawalpindi surface offers assistance to spin. England's collapse against Pakistan showed that sustained pressure and variations in pace can create opportunities. Theekshana will need to maintain control and force the batters into mistakes.
England: Harry Brook
Brook scored just five runs against Pakistan and will be keen to respond. He remains an important part of England's middle order, but Sri Lanka may look to test him with spin early in his innings. His ability to adapt will be significant in this match.
England: Joe Root
Root provides England with stability and experience. If Sri Lanka take early wickets, he could be responsible for rebuilding the innings and guiding the team through the middle overs. His ability to rotate the strike will be particularly important against spin.
Why Sri Lanka are our upset pick
Sri Lanka are our match-winner selection despite having only a 30% win probability.
- England's recent collapse: Losing seven wickets for 50 runs against Pakistan exposed vulnerabilities in England's middle order.
- Potential spin advantage: Sri Lanka can look to exploit England's difficulties against spin by varying pace and applying pressure through the middle overs.
- Familiarity with conditions: Sri Lanka have spent considerable time playing in Pakistan and may be better prepared to adapt to the local conditions.
England still have the stronger recent head-to-head record and a batting lineup capable of producing a big total. Their 70% win probability reflects that advantage, so backing Sri Lanka is a higher-risk choice rather than the statistically favoured outcome.
Our upset selection is based on the possibility that Sri Lanka can repeat the pressure Pakistan applied to England and turn the match into a low-scoring contest.
Bet on Sri Lanka to win today
Our main selection is Sri Lanka to win at odds of 3.37. England remain favourites, but their recent collapse against Pakistan creates an opportunity for Sri Lanka if they use spin effectively and maintain pressure through the middle overs.
For alternative markets, total sixes under 12.5 is worth considering if both sides struggle to establish a consistent boundary-hitting rhythm. Harry Brook under 33.5 runs is another option after his low score against Pakistan, although he has the ability to respond with a substantial innings.
Compare available odds before placing a bet, as prices can change before the match. Betting carries financial risk, so set limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.
