SA vs AUS win percentage stands at 56% in favour of Australia.
Key reasons:
- Australia arrive after completing a 3-0 ODI series sweep against Zimbabwe
- Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc strengthen an already impressive Australian pace attack
- South Africa are missing Kagiso Rabada, Ottneil Baartman and Lungi Ngidi from their frontline bowling group
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SA vs AUS Betting Tips
Australia head into the first ODI after completing a 3-0 series win over Zimbabwe, while their bowling attack has been strengthened by the return of Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc. South Africa have several quality batters, but injuries to Kagiso Rabada, Ottneil Baartman and Lungi Ngidi have weakened their pace department. The Kingsmead conditions should also suit Australia's experienced fast bowlers.
Cooper Connolly has been Australia's leading run-scorer in ODIs this year, with 337 runs. He has scored at least 26 runs in four of his last six matches, including a century and two half-centuries. Connolly also scored 51 in Australia's first ODI against Zimbabwe, making the over 25.5 runs market worth considering again.
Five of the last eight matches at Kingsmead have featured at least one individual score of 102 or more. Both teams have several batters capable of playing a long innings, including Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock and David Miller. If the surface settles after the initial movement, there is a strong chance of a major individual score.
Match details
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Match | South Africa vs Australia, 1st ODI |
| Series | Australia Tour of South Africa 2026 |
| Date | 24 September 2026 |
| Venue | Hollywoodbets Kingsmead Stadium, Durban |
| Format | ODI |
South Africa vs Australia 1st ODI prediction
South Africa and Australia will begin their three-match ODI series at Kingsmead in Durban on Thursday. The series is an important part of both teams' preparations for the 2027 ODI World Cup, with Australia arriving in South Africa after a convincing 3-0 series victory over Zimbabwe.
Australia's recent ODI campaign has produced several encouraging performances. Matt Renshaw scored a century in the opening match against Zimbabwe, while Cooper Connolly contributed 51. Josh Inglis then made 103 in the third ODI as Australia completed a clean sweep.
The return of Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc makes Australia's bowling attack considerably stronger for the South Africa series. Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Ellis and Xavier Bartlett provide further pace options, while Adam Zampa remains the main specialist spinner.
South Africa have not played many ODIs in 2026, with their recent 50-over cricket largely involving Namibia. They have named a strong batting group for this series, but their bowling resources have been hit by injuries.
Kagiso Rabada, Ottneil Baartman and Lungi Ngidi are all unavailable for the ODI series. Gerald Coetzee has therefore been recalled to the ODI setup after more than two years away from the format, while Duan Jansen and Nqobani Mokoena provide additional pace options.
The Proteas still have considerable batting quality. Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock, Ryan Rickelton, Aiden Markram, David Miller and Tristan Stubbs give them depth through the top and middle order.
Australia have the advantage in bowling experience, particularly in conditions where fast bowlers can extract movement from the surface.
Prediction: Australia to win.
Pitch report
Kingsmead is traditionally one of the more helpful ODI venues in South Africa for fast bowlers, particularly during the opening stages of an innings. The combination of pace, bounce and movement can make life difficult for batters who try to attack too early.
The new ball is likely to be particularly important. Australia's attack featuring Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood could exploit any movement through the air and off the surface.
Batters who survive the initial spell should find scoring easier as the innings progresses. Kingsmead has also produced several substantial individual scores, meaning the pitch should not be considered purely bowler-friendly.
The average first-innings score in the available recent venue sample is around 265. A total around 280-290 should therefore provide a competitive platform, while a score approaching 300 would put considerable pressure on the chasing team.
South Africa's batters will need to negotiate Australia's opening spell carefully. Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh, meanwhile, will look to take advantage of any loose deliveries once the ball becomes older.
Cloudy conditions are expected in Durban, which could further increase the possibility of seam movement during the first innings.
Toss Prediction
The team winning the toss is likely to bowl first.
There has been a relatively even split between teams batting first and chasing at Kingsmead, so there is no overwhelming historical advantage either way.
However, the possibility of early seam movement should encourage the captain winning the toss to make use of the new ball. Bowling first would also provide an opportunity to assess how the surface behaves before beginning the chase.
If the pitch settles after the first 10-15 overs, batting conditions could become more favourable, making chasing an attractive option.
Key players
South Africa
- Temba Bavuma: The South African captain provides stability at the top of the order and will be important against Australia's new-ball attack.
- Quinton de Kock: De Kock brings extensive international experience and remains one of South Africa's biggest threats with the bat.
- Marco Jansen: Jansen provides valuable balance as a left-arm pace-bowling all-rounder and can contribute crucial runs down the order.
Australia
- Travis Head: Head's aggressive approach can put pressure on the South African new-ball bowlers if he survives the early movement.
- Cooper Connolly: Connolly has been Australia's leading ODI run-scorer this year and has already produced a century and multiple half-centuries.
- Mitchell Starc: Starc returns to the ODI side and could be particularly dangerous at Kingsmead with the new ball.
Probable playing XIs
South Africa probable XI
Temba Bavuma (C), Quinton de Kock, Ryan Rickelton, Tony de Zorzi, David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Corbin Bosch, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Gerald Coetzee, Kwena Maphaka.
Australia probable XI
Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Josh Inglis (WK), Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Matt Renshaw, Cameron Green, Pat Cummins (C), Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Adam Zampa.
Why Australia are the better pick
Australia have several factors working in their favour ahead of the opening ODI.
Their most obvious advantage is the pace attack. Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc are returning after being rested for the Zimbabwe series, joining Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Ellis and Xavier Bartlett as Australia's available fast-bowling options.
Kingsmead is a venue where that bowling strength could become particularly important. The new ball can move significantly, and Australia's experienced seamers are capable of exploiting both movement and bounce.
South Africa's bowling resources are considerably less settled. Kagiso Rabada and Ottneil Baartman were already ruled out before Lungi Ngidi was also withdrawn because of a hamstring injury. Gerald Coetzee has been recalled after a long absence from ODI cricket, while several other seamers have limited international experience.
The Proteas can compensate to some extent through their batting depth. Bavuma, de Kock, Rickelton, Miller and Stubbs form a strong top and middle order, while Marco Jansen and Corbin Bosch add all-round depth.
Australia also have plenty of batting firepower. Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh can attack the new ball, while Cooper Connolly and Matt Renshaw have both produced substantial scores recently. Josh Inglis enters the series after making 103 in the third ODI against Zimbabwe.
Connolly's recent ODI form is particularly encouraging. He has scored 337 runs in 2026 and has demonstrated that he can both build an innings and accelerate later.
The head-to-head record is relatively competitive, with South Africa winning six of the last 10 ODI meetings and Australia winning four. However, Australia enter this series with strong recent momentum after their Zimbabwe clean sweep.
South Africa will also have home conditions in their favour, and their batting line-up is good enough to make this a competitive contest. The deciding factor could be the difference between the two bowling attacks.
With Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood available, Australia have the greater combination of pace, experience and wicket-taking ability.
Australia are the pick to win the first ODI.
Bet on SA vs AUS today
The first ODI should be a competitive contest between two strong batting line-ups, but Australia's bowling depth gives them an advantage at Kingsmead.
The visitors arrive after a 3-0 ODI series sweep against Zimbabwe and have strengthened their pace attack with the return of Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc.
The main betting options are Australia to win, Cooper Connolly to score over 25.5 runs and the highest individual score to be over 102.5 runs.
Bet on Australia to win.
