NZ vs IND Betting Tips
India are our pick to win the fourth ODI. They have won both completed matches on this tour and have a 2-0 lead in the series. New Zealand will be without Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham, leaving significant gaps in their middle order and making their revised batting combination less experienced. India, meanwhile, have greater squad depth and should be able to maintain their quality despite making changes of their own. With the opportunity to secure the series, India have a strong incentive to deliver another complete performance.
Virat Kohli is our preferred selection in the individual runs market. The experienced batter remains one of India's most dependable ODI performers and has the technique to adapt to different conditions. The first two matches were particularly challenging for batters, with significant seam movement and steep bounce making it difficult to play freely. Bay Oval is expected to offer more favourable batting conditions, which should give Kohli a better opportunity to settle and build a substantial innings. His experience will be valuable as India look to complete the series victory.
We expect the batting conditions at Bay Oval to be more favourable than those in Auckland and Hamilton. That could allow both teams to play more attacking cricket and produce a higher boundary count. Rohit Sharma, Ishan Kishan and Kohli provide India with several six-hitting options.
India have a 55% win probability, while New Zealand have a 45% chance of victory.
Key reasons:
- India have won both completed matches on the tour and lead the series 2-0.
- New Zealand are missing Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham.
- India's greater squad depth gives them more options despite changes to their playing combination.
Match Details
| Match | Details |
|---|---|
| Fixture | New Zealand vs India |
| Match | 4th ODI |
| Series | India tour of New Zealand 2026 |
| Date | November 13, 2026 |
| Venue | Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, New Zealand |
| Format | One Day International |
| India win odds | 1.75 |
| Favourite | India |
New Zealand vs India 4th ODI Match Prediction
India are in a strong position heading into the fourth ODI, having won the first two matches before rain interrupted the third game in Hamilton. The 2-0 series lead gives the visitors an opportunity to secure the series with another victory. New Zealand, meanwhile, must win the remaining matches to avoid defeat in the five-match contest.
The change of venue could make a difference. The first two matches were challenging for batters because of seam movement and steep bounce, but Bay Oval is expected to provide a more favourable surface. That should give both teams greater freedom to attack, although the new ball could still offer assistance to the seamers.
New Zealand's revised middle order is a concern, particularly with three established players unavailable. India also have changes to manage, but their overall squad depth gives them more options. The visitors remain favourites, although New Zealand's home advantage and the possibility of improved batting conditions should keep the contest competitive.
Head-to-Head Record
India hold a slight advantage, with two wins from the last three meetings. The visitors have also won both completed matches in the current series, taking a 2-0 lead.
New Zealand will be hoping that a change of conditions helps them produce a stronger batting performance. However, India have handled the opening matches more effectively and will be confident of maintaining their advantage in the rivalry.
New Zealand Preview
New Zealand will be hoping that the change in conditions at Bay Oval allows their batters to play with greater freedom. Finn Allen is expected to return to the ODI side, with Tim Seifert likely to open alongside him in the revised combination. Will Young provides stability at number three, while Nick Kelly and Mitch Hay are expected to feature in the middle order. Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner offer valuable all-round ability, while Dean Foxcroft adds another batting option and can contribute with his off-spin. The absence of Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham is a major setback, as all three would normally play important roles in the middle order. Seifert has an important opportunity to establish himself in the ODI format after receiving an extended run in the side because of injuries and squad changes.
The bowling attack will also have a different look as New Zealand manage their resources ahead of the Test series. Matt Henry remains with the ODI squad for this match and will be keen to get some overs before joining his Test team-mates. Kyle Jamieson provides height and bounce, while Jacob Duffy has been a reliable pace option. Matt Fisher and Kristian Clarke are also in contention for the remaining seam-bowling positions. Santner and Bracewell will provide the spin options, with Santner's control particularly important in the middle overs. Brett Randell is another interesting addition. The 31-year-old Central Districts fast bowler has taken 100 wickets in 55 List A matches at an average of 22.74 and earned his maiden ODI call-up. Blair Tickner is unavailable following his concussion, so New Zealand will need their remaining fast bowlers to deliver disciplined spells against India's experienced batting order.
New Zealand's Predicted Playing XI
- Finn Allen
- Tim Seifert (wk)
- Will Young
- Nick Kelly
- Mitch Hay
- Michael Bracewell
- Mitchell Santner (c)
- Dean Foxcroft
- Kyle Jamieson
- Matt Henry
- Jacob Duffy
Key Players for New Zealand
- Finn Allen: His aggressive approach at the top could help New Zealand make the most of the expected batting-friendly conditions.
- Tim Seifert: An important part of the revised opening combination and a player with an opportunity to establish himself in the ODI side.
- Michael Bracewell: Provides middle-order batting and a useful spin option.
- Mitchell Santner: His experience and control will be important in the middle overs.
India Preview
India have made a few changes to their squad for the final two ODIs, but their batting line-up remains strong. With Shubman Gill joining the Test camp, Ishan Kishan is expected to open alongside Rohit Sharma. Kishan's aggressive approach could give India a different dynamic at the top, while Rohit will look to use his experience to provide a strong start. Virat Kohli remains a key figure at number three, and Shreyas Iyer will take over the captaincy and bat in the middle order. Iyer has had a difficult time against the short ball in the first two matches, but the conditions at Mount Maunganui should be more favourable for stroke-making. Ruturaj Gaikwad is another option in the batting order, while Naman Dhir provides flexibility and all-round depth. Axar Patel adds valuable batting quality lower down the order. India have enough experience to handle the conditions, but the captaincy change and reshuffling of the opening combination will make this an important opportunity for the players to establish their roles ahead of the final ODI.
The bowling department has also undergone a change, with Anshul Kamboj leaving the ODI squad to join the Test group. Mohammed Siraj could finally get an opportunity, having played very little international cricket since the tour of Sri Lanka in August. His ability to generate movement and maintain pressure with the new ball would give India an experienced seam option alongside Arshdeep Singh and Gurnoor Brar. Auqib Nabi is another pace option, while Kuldeep Yadav remains in the squad and could come into the playing XI if India decide that the conditions justify a second specialist spinner. India's bowling attack has been considerably more effective than New Zealand's in the completed matches, and the visitors will want to maintain that advantage. The combination of experienced seamers and spin options should give Iyer several ways to manage the innings.
India's Predicted Playing XI
- Rohit Sharma
- Ishan Kishan (wk)
- Virat Kohli
- Shreyas Iyer (c)
- Ruturaj Gaikwad
- Naman Dhir
- Axar Patel
- Auqib Nabi
- Mohammed Siraj
- Gurnoor Brar
- Arshdeep Singh
Key Players for India
- Rohit Sharma: His experience at the top of the order will be important in setting the tone.
- Virat Kohli: India's dependable number-three batter and our pick for over 36.5 runs.
- Shreyas Iyer: The new captain will be expected to provide stability in the middle order.
- Mohammed Siraj: His ability to generate movement with the new ball could be valuable if selected.
Toss Prediction
The captain winning the toss may prefer to bat first and put a competitive total on the board. With better batting conditions expected, making the most of the first innings could be important.
Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
Bay Oval should offer a more batting-friendly surface than the seam-friendly pitches seen in Auckland and Hamilton. Batters are expected to have more opportunities to play their natural ODI game, although the new ball could still provide some movement for the seamers. The ground has seen an average first-innings score of around 268 in ODIs, making a total in the 270–290 range a useful benchmark. The forecast points to cool temperatures around 15.6°C, high humidity, scattered clouds, light winds and partial cloud cover. These conditions may aid swing early before easing later in the innings.
Why India Are the Better Pick
India have the advantage of a 2-0 lead in the series and have been more effective in the completed matches. Their bowling attack has restricted New Zealand to modest totals and taken wickets at regular intervals. The hosts' batting has struggled, and the departures of Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham leave a less experienced middle order to face India's attack.
India retain greater depth and experience, with Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Shreyas Iyer leading the batting line-up. The expected improvement in batting conditions at Bay Oval should also provide an opportunity for India's experienced batters to make bigger contributions. New Zealand will be motivated to keep the series alive, but India's balance and stronger performances so far make the visitors the preferred selection.
Bet on India Today
Our final recommendation is to back India to defeat New Zealand at odds of 1.75. The visitors have won both completed matches on the tour and have the greater squad depth heading into this fixture. New Zealand's revised middle order faces a difficult challenge against an Indian attack that has already performed effectively in the series.
Our three recommended bets:
- India to Win @ 1.75
- Virat Kohli – Over 36.5 Runs
- Total Sixes India – Over 8.5
